5 October 2014
Based on the information available on 5 October, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 35-40 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 45-50 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.
The daily increase of the water level in Mopti has further slowed down water level and has increased only 34 cm last fortnight. We predict that the water level in Mopti will still increase 9 - 17 cm the coming 10 -17 days. The predictions have not changed since last week.
At an expected peak flood of 591 cm (± 4 cm) in Mopti, we may also estimate the date at which the bourgou fields in the southwestern part of the Inner Niger Delta will be available for grazing cattle. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, we may predict that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé on about 22 November (between 15 and 30 November).
We predict now that the maximum flood level in Akka will be reached between 8 and 12 November; its peak level will be 447 cm (± 8 cm), which corresponds with an estimated total flooded area of 12 600 km2.
The flood in Diré will be at its peak between 18 and 27 November and reach a maximum level of 481 cm (± 6 cm). At such a low level, we know for sure that this year no river water will reach Lac Faguibine.
