23 September 2015
Based on the information available on 23 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be as high as 2013 and 2014 and about 20 cm higher as last year. The prediction of the flood level is nearly certain.
The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 582 cm on 23 September. The water level in Mopti will still increase with about 30 cm until the peak is reached in Mopti between 17 and 25 October. The flood level will be at its maximum in Akka between 13 and 17 November and in Diré likely between 25 November and 3 December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 23 September, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani.
The rainfall in the catchment area of the Niger and Bani Rivers during the last 3 weeks has been above-average for this time of the year, with a lot of rain on 1, 2, 4, 6, 15, 18 and 19 September. This explains why the prediction of the peak flood level has gradually gone up during September. Between 6 and 15 September, OPIDIN still predicted a peak flood level of 598 cm but this has since then increased to 614 cm at present.
OPIDIN predicts that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé between 20 November and 2 December. This prediction is based on the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé during the last 30 years.
