14 August 2014
Based on the information available on 14 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be lower than 2012 or 2013 but higher than 2011. The prediction of the flood level is not yet certain, however. Depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming fortnight, the flood can be still a bit higher or lower than predicted now.
The water level in Mopti increases slowly and remained even at the same level between 3 and 8 August. The water level in Mopti reached on 13 August a level of 347 cm, which is 33 cm below the average calculated over the last 20 years for this date. This does not necessarily mean that the peak flood level will be low, but it becomes very likely that the peak flood will be not high this year. The predictions regarding the rainfall in the catchment area of the Niger and Bani for the coming week are close to what is normal in this time of the year, so the predicted flood level will not change much next week. If the rainfall in late August would be extremely high, it is still possible that the peak flood will be higher than predicted now, but the flood will not become higher than 2013 and 2012.
