The water level in Mopti showed a significant increase the last week. Based on the information available on 23rd August, OPIDIN predicts now that the flood will be above average, and higher than the floods in 2014-2015, comparable to 2016. Although at this stage even a higher flood is predicted, it has to be stressed that the prediction in August is still uncertain.
The water level in Mopti on the 23rd August was 540 cm, resulting in an increase of 50 cm compared to the previous week. Also, this water level is about 65 cm higher than the one at the same date in 2017 but 15 cm lower than at that date in 2016. It is expected, that the water level in Mopti will show a further increase in the coming weeks until the peak is reached in Mopti at the end of October. Based on OPIDIN, the level of flooding will be at its maximum in Akka at the end of November and in Diré during the second decade of December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 23rd August, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with very rainy days during the last week.
The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but with relatively much rain at last decade of July and the first two decades of August, and an upward trend until the end of August in Upper Niger as well as in Upper Bani. The weather models forecast for coming week again a rainfall being above average, supporting the expectation that the flood will be above average.