The water level in Mopti declined 5 cm between 21 and 27 September, from 628 to 623 cm, but increased thereafter again 7 cm to reach a level of 630 cm on 3 October to remain afterwards three days on that level. A temporary decline of the water level before the peak is reached in Mopti is extremely rare and was only observed in 2005 and 2010. To understand why there was a temporary dip in the water level, it is necessary to analyse the daily course of (1) the water level in the hydrometric stations upstream of the Inner Niger Delta, (2) the rainfall in the Upper Niger, (3) the water management at Sélingué and Markala.
With the data available now, OPIDIN is not able to predict whether the water level would remain at the present level in Mopti (630 cm), or still further increase. Even if it would further increase, it is very unlikely that the flood will be as high as last year and in 2018 (670 cm). It is more likely that the peak will be as high as 2019 (640 cm) or a bit lower.
