The water level in Mopti has increased another 6 cm last week to 663 cm on 19 October. OPIDIN predicts that it will still increase by 4 to 10 cm in the last ten days of October. The highest flood since 1969 was in 2018, when the peak water level was 670 cm in Mopti. The predicted peak will this year be 667 – 673 cm in Mopti, thus about as high as in 2018. However, local people must be (made) aware that the flood might reach a level being even a bit higher than two years ago.
High flood levels as in 2018 and 2020 were not rare before 1969. Between 1907 and 1969 the peak flood level in Mopti was in 40 of the 63 years (61%) higher than 670 cm and in many of those years even about 700 cm.
The peak in Mopti will be reached in late October and the flood will be at its maximum in Akka early December. Based on the current prediction, the south-western part of the Inner Niger Delta may become available for grazing cattle in December. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, it is expected that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé in the first half of December.
