Based on the information available on 14 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood of 2019 will be probably as high as most years since 1994. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however, depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming weeks.
The water level in Mopti has increased 65 cm in one week (5 – 12 August), but it is on 14 August still 80 cm lower than on 13 August in 2018 and in 2016 (when the floods were high). Hence OPIDIN predicts a maximal flood level being as high as in 2012-2015, but probably not as high as in 2016 and 2018.
The total rainfall in the Upper Basin was until last week below the long-term average, but since there was a lot of rain in Guinea and SW Mali on 5, 6, 8 and 10 August, the total rainfall, calculated for the last 3 months is now close to the long-term average.