The water level in Mopti has risen by 92 cm within the past two weeks, from 370 cm on 8 August to 462 cm on 22 August. That is, on average, by 7 cm a day. The further increase of the water level last week makes it likely that the peak flood in 2023 will be not as high as in the past five years. As OPIDIN predicted on 1 August, still a moderate flood is forecasted for this year, since the water level in Mopti is still relatively low (462 cm on 22 August, being 72 cm lower than last year on the same date).
In an average year, most of the annual rainfall in the Upper Niger falls before 24 August. The rainfall in the coming weeks can therefore still have some influence on the flood height. Rainfall in the Upper Niger over the past few weeks however decreased markedly. Also the weather forecast for the coming weeks is below-average in the Upper basin.
The flood prediction is still not fully sure and may vary depending on the amount of rainfall the coming weeks. OPIDIN predicts now that the flood level will be moderate this year, probably lower than the past five years.