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Flood forecast 2017
The graph below shows for this year the predicted peak flood level (± confidence interval)  in the Inner Niger Delta. The prediction is based on the current measurements of the water level in Mopti combined with the recent rainfall in the Upper NIger Basin. The predicted flood peak is expected to be higher than minimum and lower than maximum and likely near to mean.  The prediction of the peak flood level changes during the course of August and September and becomes more accurate in course of time. 

 

Flood forecast 2017 compared to previous years
The graph below shows the latest prediction of the flood level in 2017, compared to the annual maximum flood level in the past. The horizontal lines give the predicted peak flood level for this year. The bars show the variation in the annual maximal flood level since 1907 (measured since 1955, but reconstructed in the years before using the water level measurements at other hydrometric stations).

Based on the most recent data, we predict a maximal inundation of 10,669 km² (± 306).

 

Bulletin 10 | 04 October 2017

This is the last OPIDIN flood forecast bulletin of 2017. With a water level of 552 cm, the flood reached its maximum in Mopti on 23 September and started to decline afterwards. The flood peak is lower than the past five years (2012-2016), but higher than in 2011, when the flood was very low. In contrast to previous years, OPIDIN was not able to predict well the flood level. In early August, the predicted flood level was 75 cm too high. This was gradually lowered down, but the predicted flood level was in September still 25 cm too high.

This decrease after 23 September reflects the deflooding. Based on OPIDIN, the level of flooding will be at its maximum in Akka during the end of the first week of November and in Diré 10 days later. OPIDIN predicts that the south-western part of the Inner Niger Delta will become available for grazing cattle in the second half of November. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, OPIDIN predicts that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé on about 5 - 15 November.

 

Bulletin 9 | 27 September 2017

Based on the information available on 27 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will be lower as the past five years (2012-2016). The flood will have a moderate level. This prediction of the flood level is has a high reliability.

The water level in Mopti reached the level of 545 cm on 27 September, and even decreased 3 cm in the previous week. This rate of decrease may show the starting of the deflooding, but this is not yet certain. With the current information, it is expected, that the water level in Mopti will reach its peak around half October. Based on OPIDIN, the level of flooding will be at its maximum in Akka in the first decade of November and in Diré at the end of that month.

OPIDIN predicts that the south-western part of the Inner Niger Delta will become available for grazing cattle in the second half of November. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, OPIDIN predicts that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé on about 15 - 20 November.

The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but with relatively much rain in July, and an upward trend until the first half of September, especially in the Upper Baní. Rains were modest in the second half of September, explaining the lower forecast later in the season. The weather models still forecast some rainfall in Guinea for the coming weeks, but it is not expected this will change the forecast.

 

Bulletin 8 | 20 September 2017

Based on the information available on 20 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will be lower as the past two years (2015 and 2016). With the current available information it is forecasted that the flood will have a moderate level (582 cm at Mopti scale). This prediction of the flood level has already a high reliability, but is still depending on additional rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin over the next weeks.

The water level in Mopti reached the level of 548 cm on 20 September, resulting in an increase of 8 cm in the previous week. The rate of increase has been slowing down, resulting in a lower forecast. With the current information, it is expected, that the water level in Mopti will reach its peak during the third week of October. Based on OPIDIN, the level of flooding will be at its maximum in Akka around half of November and in Diré at the end of that month. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 20 September, but also take into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani.

OPIDIN predicts that the south-western part of the Inner Niger Delta will become available for grazing cattle in the second half of November. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, OPIDIN predicts that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé on about 15 - 20 November.

The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but with relatively much rain in July, and an upward trend until the first half of September, especially in the Upper Baní. Rains were modest in the second half of September. The weather models still forecast for the coming week a rainfall being above-average, but the reliability is moderate.

 

Bulletin 7 | 13 September 2017

Based on the information available on 13 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will not be as high as in 2016. With the current available information it is forecasted that the flood will have a moderate level, lower than in 2015 and 2016. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, depending on additional rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin over the next weeks.

The water level in Mopti reached the level of 540 cm on 13 September, resulting in an increase of 20 cm compared to the previous week. The rate of increase slowed down, resulting in a lower forecast. With the current information, it is expected, that the water level in Mopti will reach its peak around half October. Based on OPIDIN, the level of flooding will be at its maximum in Akka during the first decade of November and in Diré 10 days later. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 13 September, but also take into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani.

OPIDIN predicts that the south-western part of the Inner Niger Delta will become available for grazing cattle in the second half of November. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, OPIDIN predicts that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé on about 15 - 30 November.

The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but with relatively much rain in July, and an upward trend until the first half of September in Upper Niger as well as in Upper Baní. The rainfall in the first 2 weeks of September was also a bit higher than normal in this time of the year. The weather models still forecast for the coming week a rainfall being above-average, but the reliability is uncertain. 

 

Bulletin 6 | 06Setembre 2017

Based on the information available on 6 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will not be as high as in 2016. With the current available information it is forecasted that the flood will reach a relative good level, a bit higher than the four preceding years (2012-2015). However, the prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, because we still have to wait for rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin over the next two weeks.

The water level in Mopti reached the level of 520 cm on 06 September, resulting in an increase of 18 cm compared to the previous week. With the current information, it is expected, that the water level in Mopti will show a further increase in the coming week until the peak is reached in Mopti at the end of the third week of October. Based on OPIDIN, the level of flooding will be at its maximum in Akka during the second decade of November and in Diré during the first week of December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 06 September, but also take into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with relatively rainy days during the last week.

The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but with relatively much rain in July, and an upward trend until the end of August in Upper Niger as well as in Upper Baní. The rainfall in August was also higher than normal in this time of the year. The weather models still forecast for the coming week a rainfall being above-average. For this reason, it is expected that the flood forecast might show a good increase during the next week.

Bulletin 5 | 31 August 2017

Based on the information available on 31 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will not be as high as in 2016. With the current available information it is forecasted that the flood will reach a modest level: a bit lower than in 2015. However, the prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin over the next weeks.

The water level in Mopti reached the level of 502 cm on 31 August, resulting in an increase of 17 cm compared to the previous week. The relative rapid increase from the beginning of this month to 26 August, slowed down a bit afterwards. It is expected, that the water level in Mopti will reach its peak in the second decade of October (Akka during second week of November and in Diré 3 days later). These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 31 August, but also take into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with few rainy days during the last week.

The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but with relatively much rain in July, and an upward trend until the second half of August in Upper Niger as well as in Upper Baní. The rainfall in August was also higher than normal in this time of the year. The weather models forecast for the coming weeks a rainfall being below-average. For this reason, it is expected that the slowdown of the increase in water level may continue.

 

Bulletin 4 | 24 August 2017

Based on the information available on 24 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will not be as high as in 2016. With the current available information it is forecasted that the flood will reach a relative good level, a bit higher than the four preceding years (2012-2015). However, the prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, because we still have to wait for rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin over the next two weeks.

The water level in Mopti reached the level of 485 cm on 24 August, resulting in an increase of 50 cm compared to the previous week. It is expected, that the water level in Mopti will show a further increase in the coming week until the peak is reached in Mopti in the last decade of October. Based on OPIDIN, the level of flooding will be at its maximum in Akka during the second decade of November and in Diré a week later. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 24 August, but also take into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with very rainy days during the last week.

The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but with relatively much rain in July, and an upward trend until the first half of August in Upper Niger as well as in Upper Baní. The rainfall in the first 15 days of August was also higher than normal in this time of the year. The weather models still forecast for the coming two weeks again a rainfall being above average. For this reason, it is expected that the flood forecast might even show an increase during the coming fortnight.

 

Bulletin 3 | 16 Août 2017

Based on the information available on 16 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will not be as high as in 2016. With the current available information it is forecasted that the flood will reach a relative good level, a bit higher than the four years before 2016. However, the prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, because we still have to wait for rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin over the next two weeks.

After a modest start in early August, with 347 cm on the first of August, the water level in Mopti reached the level of 435 cm on 16 August, resulting in an increase of 15 cm compared to the previous week. The quick increase in the first decade of August slowed down a bit in the last week. With the current information, it is expected, that the water level in Mopti will show a further increase until the peak is reached in Mopti in the last decade of October, in Akka during the second week of November and in Diré at the third week of November. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 16 August, but also take into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with rainy days during the last week.

The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but with relatively much rain in July, and an upward trend until the first half of August in Upper Niger as well as in Upper Baní. The rainfall in the first 15 days of August was also higher than normal in this time of the year. The weather models forecast for the coming two weeks again a rainfall being above average in Guinea and the southern part of Mali, and a rainfall below average for other parts of Mali. For this reason, it is expected that the flood forecast might even show an increase during the coming fortnight.
 

Bulletin 2 | 10-08-2016

Based on the information available on 10 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will not be as high as in 2016. With the current available information it is forecasted that the flood will reach a level being comparable with last years (2015, 2013, 2012). However, the prediction of the flood level is still uncertain. Much can still change depending on the rainfall in the upper Niger basin during the coming weeks.

The water level in Mopti reached the level of 420 cm on 10 August, resulting in an increase of 45 cm compared to the previous week. It is expected, that the water level in Mopti will show a further increase in the coming week until the peak is reached in Mopti in the second half of October. Based on OPIDIN, the level of flooding will be at its maximum in Akka during the third week of November and in Diré at the end of November. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on10 August, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with very rainy days during the last week.

The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but with relatively much rain in July, and an upward trend until the first decade of August in Upper Niger as well as in Upper Baní. The rainfall in the first ten days of August was also higher than normal in this time of the year. The weather models forecast for coming week again a rainfall being above average. For this reason, it is expected that the water level will show a relatively fast increase during at least the coming fortnight.

Bulletin 1 | 3 August 2017

Based on the information available on 3 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will not be as high as in 2016 and the three years before, but above average. This may be due to the modest rainfall (just above average) recorded during the first few months of the rainy season. However, the prediction of the flood level is still uncertain. Much can still change depending on the rainfall in the upper Niger basin during the coming weeks.

The water level was still low in Mopti on 13 July with 250 cm, but it increased in the second half of July to reach a level of 375 cm on 3rd August. Since 1970, the water level in Mopti is usually about 300 cm in early August, so it is above normal 75 cm this year.

The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started rather normal this year, but with relatively heavy rains in July in Upper Niger as well as in Upper Baní. The cumulative rainfall of the weeks was also higher than normal at this time of year. The weather models forecast for the coming week a rainfall being above average. For this reason, the water level may show a rather strong increase during the next fortnight.

 
 
Bulletins of previous years
 
 

Bulletin 13 | 24 October 2016

This is the last OPIDIN bulletin of 2016. The flood at Mopti has reached its highest level (657 cm) on 19 October and has started to decline, but further downstream the water still goes up. OPIDIN predicts that the flood will reach its peak between 22 and 26 November in Akka and between 3 and 11 December in Diré. The last dozens of years, cows were allowed to cross the river at Diafarabé during the course of November. That will not be possible this year, since in November the floodplains will still be covered by water. In 2016, the floodplains will become available for grazing in the first half of December.

 
The flooding in 2016 will be as high as 1994 and 1999. These three years stand out as extremely wet years compared to other years since 1970. However, compared to the years before 1970, 2016 may be considered as a “normal” year. For more details see graph below.
 

OPIDIN predicted already on 1 August that the flood in 2016 would be high (650-690 cm), a prediction being based on the high water level in Mopti on 1 August and the above-average rainfall in the Upper Niger in July. Indeed, the water level raised fast in August, even 2 metre in one month. There was so much rainfall in the Upper Niger in early August and the water level at Mopti increased so fast that OPIDIN upgraded its prediction of the peak flood by 40 cm between 6 and 20 August. Since 20 August until 27 September the daily prediction remained at a same level (between 670-700 cm), but then slowly decreased to arrive finally at 657 cm on 19 October. OPIDIN lowered its predicted flood peak because the water level in Mopti hardly increased anymore in September and October (only 42 cm between 4 and 29 September, and only 22 cm between 29 September and 20 October). Compared to previous years, the flood level in 2016 levelled off already a very long time before the actual peak was reached. One explanation is that the rainfall in the Upper Niger was very high before mid-August, but did not deviate from average, or was below average, in the weeks after. The graph below shows the increase of the water level in Mopti (blue line) and the daily prediction of the peak flood level (yellow line).

The predictions of OPIDIN are based on data collected in the past. For instance, when the water level in Mopti has increased already to 400 cm on 1 August, it is obvious from previous years that the flood will be high. Comparing different years, the model calculates the probability that the flood peak will reach a certain level given the observed water level in Mopti on 1 August, it does the same for the water level reached on 2 August, etc. The daily prediction could further be improved by adding in the model the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the preceding three weeks. The prediction can never be very accurate, however, certainly not in August, because the flooding of the Inner Niger Delta river will deviate from the prediction depending on the rainfall later in the season. This year, the rainfall after mid-August was below average, by which the prediction of OPIDIN in mid-August arrived at a peak level being somewhat too high. Another year, it will be the other way around. These deviations cannot be prevented, unless the future rainfall for the next two or three weeks might be predicted accurately and integrated in the model.

The OPIDIN website was launched in June 2013. The number of visitors reaches each year its peak in September, which was to be expected assuming people visit the site to know the predicted flood level in the months before the actual peak is reached in October - November. For the same reason, OPIDIN is less often visited between October and June.

It took some time before the website was found by the potential users. Comparing the month September, the number of visits increased between 2013 and 2016 from 155, 257, 408 to 612 this year. So far, the OPIDIN site had 12,114 visits by - in total - 9175 users, spending on average 129 seconds on the site. When the visitors are split up per country, there were still more visitors in Europe than in West Africa, but when a selection is made per city, most users were found in Bamako, Mali.

Until 2015, 97% of the visitors used a desktop and not more than 2.3% a smartphone and 0.7% a tablet. This has changed in 2016: 87.4% of the visitors used a desktop, 11.5% a smartphone and 1.1% a tablet. A further increase of mobile users is to be expected as soon as smartphones will become more generally used in Mali.

 
Bulletin 12 | 19 October 2016
Based on the information available on19 October, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be extremely high this year. It will become one of the highest floodsin the last 50 years, about as high as 1994 and 1999. The peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in extremely dry years.
 
OPIDIN predicts that the water level in Mopti will further increase by some cm next week. The flooding will reach its peak between 24 October and 1 November in Mopti, between 22 and 26 Novemberin Akka and between 3 and 11 December in Diré. The last dozens of years, cows were allowed to cross the river at Diafarabé during the course of November. That will not be possible this year, since in November the floodplains will still be covered by water. In 2016, the floodplains will become available for grazing in mid-December.
Bulletin 11 | 11 October 2016
Based on the information available on 11 October, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be extremely high this year. It will become one of the highest floods in the last 50 years. The peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in extremely dry years.
 
The water level in Mopti was already high early August, but had further increased 2.5 meter in the last ten weeks to reach the extremely high level of 653 cm on 11 October. The water level reached on 11 October has never been so high on this date in recent years.
 
OPIDIN predicts that the water level in Mopti will further increase by about 15 cm in October. The flooding will reach its peak between 26 October and 1 November in Mopti, between 24 and 28 November in Akka and between 4 and 12 December in Diré. The last dozens of years, cows were allowed to cross the river at Diafarabé during the course of November. That will not be possible this year, since in November the floodplains will still be covered by water. In 2016, the floodplains will become available for grazing in mid-December.
 
Bulletin 10 | 4 October 2016
 
Based on the information available on 4 October, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be extremely high this year. It will become the highest flood in the last 50 years. The peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in dry years.
 
The water level in Mopti was already high early August, but had further increased 2.5 meter in the last nine weeks to reach the extremely high level of 649 cm on 4 October. The water level reached on 4 October has never been so high on this date in recent years. One has to go back to 1969 to have a year with a similar high water level in Mopti on 4 October.
 
OPIDIN predicts that the water level in Mopti will further increase by about 45 cm in October. The flooding will reach its peak between 28 October and 5 November in Mopti, between 27 November and 1 December in Akka and between 14 and 22 December in Diré. The last dozens of years, cows were allowed to cross the river at Diafarabé during the course of November. That will not be possible this year, since in November the floodplains will still be covered by water. In 2016, the floodplains will become available for grazing after mid-December.
 
Bulletin 9 | 27 September 2016
 
Based on the information available on 27 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be extremely high this year. It will become the highest flood in the last 50 years. The peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in dry years.
 
The water level in Mopti was already high early August, but had further increased 2.45 meter in the last eight weeks to reach the extremely high level of 645 cm on 27 September. The water level reached on 27 September has never been so high on this date in recent years. One has to go back to 1969 to have a year with a similar high water level in Mopti on 27 September.
 
OPIDIN predicts that the water level in Mopti will further increase by about 45 cm in October. The flooding will reach its peak between 4 and 12 November in Mopti, between 2 and 6 December in Akka and between 25 December and 2 January in Dire. The last dozens of years, cows were allowed to cross the river at Diafarabé during the course of November. That will not be possible this year, since in November the floodplains will still be covered by water. In 2016, the floodplains will become available for grazing after mid-December.
 
Bulletin 8 | 20 September 2016
 
Based on the information available on 20 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be extremely high this year. It will become the highest flood in the last 50 years. The peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in dry years.
 
The water level in Mopti was already high early August, but had further increased 2.4 meter in the last seven weeks to reach the extremely high level of 640 cm on 20 September. The water level reached on 20 September has never been so high on this date in recent years. One has to go back to 1964 to have a year with a similar high water level in Mopti on 20 September.
 
OPIDIN predicts that the water level in Mopti will further increase by about 50 cm in September and October. The flooding will reach its peak early November in Mopti, mid-December in Akka and early January in Dire. The last dozens of years, cows were allowed to cross the river at Diafarabé during the course of November. That will not be possible this year, since in November the floodplains will still be covered by water. In 2016, the floodplains will become available for grazing after mid-December.
Bulletin 7 | 13 September 2016
Based on the information available on 13 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be extremely high this year. It will become the highest flood in the last 50 years. The peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in dry years.
 
The water level in Mopti was already high early August, but had further increased 2.3 meter in the last six weeks to reach the extremely high level of 607 cm on 13 September. The water level reached on 13 September has never been so high on this date in recent years. One has to go back to 1964 to have a year with a similar high water level in Mopti on 13 September.
 
OPIDIN predicts that the water level in Mopti will further increase by about 60 cm in September and October. The flooding will reach its peak early November in Mopti, mid-December in Akka and early January in Dire. The last dozens of years, cows were allowed to cross the river at Diafarabé during the course of November. That will not be possible this year, since in November the floodplains will still be covered by water. In 2016, the floodplains will become available for grazing after mid-December.
 

Bulletin 6 | 6 September 2016

Based on the information available on 6 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be extremely high this year. It will most likely become the highest flood in the last 50 years. The peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in dry years.

The water level in Mopti was already high early August, but had further increased 2 meter in the last five weeks to reach the extremely high level of 607 cm on 6 September. The water level reached on 6 September has never been so high on this date in recent years. One has to go back to 1964 to have a year with a similar high water level in Mopti on 6 September.

OPIDIN predicts that the water level in Mopti will further increase by about 80 cm in September and October. The flooding will reach its peak early November in Mopti, late November in Akka and early December in Dire. The last dozens of years, cows were allowed to cross the river at Diafarabé during the course of November. That will not be possible this year, since in November the floodplains will still be covered by water. In 2016, the floodplains will likely become available for grazing after mid-December.

Bulletin 5 | 31 August 2016

Based on the information available on 31 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be extremely high this year. It will most likely become the highest flood in the last 50 years. The peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in dry years.
 
The water level in Mopti was already high early August, but had further increased 1.8 meter in the last four weeks to reach the extremely high level of 590 cm on 31 August. The water level reached on 31 August has never been so high on this date in recent years. One has to go back to 1964 to have a year with a similar high water level in Mopti on 31 August.
 
OPIDIN predicts that the water level will further increase by about one meter in Mopti in September and October. The flooding will reach its peak early November in Mopti, late November in Akka and early December in Dire. The last dozens of years, cows were allowed to cross the river at Diafarabé during the course of November. That will not be possible this year, since in November the floodplains will still be covered by water. In 2016, the floodplains will likely become available for grazing after mid-December.
Bulletin 4 | 24 August 2016
Based on the information available on 24 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2016 will be extremely high. It will certainly be higher than the last ten years and most likely even become the highest flood in the last 50 years. However, the prediction of the flood level can still change a bit depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming week.
 
The water level in Mopti was already high early August, but had further increased more than 1.5 meter in the last three weeks to reach the extremely high level of 555 cm on 23 August. The water level reached on 23 August has never been so high on this date in recent years. One has to go back to 1964 to have a year with a similar high water level in Mopti on 23 August. The water level in Mopti is at present already 16 cm higher than the highest flood level in 2011 (when a peak of 539 cm was reached on 16 October). OPIDIN predicts that the peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in dry years.
 
OPIDIN predicts that the flooding will reach its peak early November in Mopti, late November in Akka and early December in Dire. The last dozens of years, cows were allowed to cross the river at Diafarabé during the course of November. That will not be possible this year, since in November the floodplains will still be covered by water. In 2016, the floodplains will likely become available for grazing after mid-December.
Bulletin 3 | 17 August 2016
Based on the information available on 17 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2016 will be extremely high. It will certainly be higher than the last 10 years and most likely become the highest flood in the last 40 years. However, the prediction of the flood level can still change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger basin during the coming weeks.
 
The water level in Mopti was already high early August, but had further increased more than a meter since then to reach the extremely high level of 513 cm on 16 August. The water level reached on 16 August has never been so high on this date in recent years. One has to go back to 1969 to have a year with a similar high water level in Mopti on 16 August (when it was 522 cm). The water level in Mopti is at present already higher than the highest flood level in 1984 (when a peak of 440 cm was reached on 14 October), in 1987 (491 cm) and in 1993 (498 cm). OPIDIN predicts that the peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being inundated 2.5 times larger, than in those dry years.
 
The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started well this year with relatively much rain in July, in the Upper Niger as well as in the Upper Bani. The rainfall in the first ten days of August was also higher than what is normal in this time of the year. The weather models forecast for coming fortnight again a rainfall above average. For this reason, OPIDIN predicts that the water level will show a relatively fast increase during at least the coming fortnight. When these rainfall forecasts appear to be correct, the peak will be higher than the five highest floods since the Great Drought in the 1980s (1994, 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2010).
 
Bulletin 2 | 10 August 2016
 
Based on the information available on 10 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2016 will be extremely high this year. It will certainly be higher than the last ten years and may-be even become the highest flood in the last 40 years. However, the prediction of the flood level can still change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming weeks.

The water level in Mopti reached the extremely high level of 464 cm on 10 August and is at present already higher than the highest flood level in 1984 (when a peak of 440 cm was reached on 14 October). The water level reached on 10 August has never been so high on this date in recent years. One has to go back to 1979 to have a year with a similar high water level in Mopti on 10 August (when it was 468 cm). 

The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started well this year with relatively much rain in July, in the Upper Niger as well as in the Upper Bani. The rainfall in the first ten days of August was also higher than what is normal in this time of the year. The weather models forecast for coming fortnight again a rainfall being above average. For this reason, OPIDIN predicts that the water level will show a relatively fast increase during at least the coming fortnight. When these rainfall forecasts appear to be correct, the peak of the flood will be higher than the five highest flood since the Great Drought in the 1980s: 1994, 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2010.
 

Bulletin 1 | 3 August 2016

Based on the information available on 3 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2016 will higher than the last four years. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can still change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming weeks.
 
The water level was still low in Mopti on 14 July, only 150 cm, but it increased a lot in the second half of July to reach a level of 410 cm on 3 August. Since 1970, the water level in Mopti is usually about 300 cm in early August, so it is this year 100 cm higher than normal. There is since 1970 only one year, 2003, where the water level has also been so high in early August. 2003 was a year with a very high flood level.
 
The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started well this year with relatively much rain in July, in the Upper Niger as well as in the Upper Bani. This explains why the water level in the Bani and Niger increased so fast in the second half of July. To have this year a similar high flood as in 2003, it would be necessary that there is also much rain in the Upper Niger Basin in August. However, the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin last week did not deviate from the long-term average and the weather models forecast for coming week a rainfall being not above average. For this reason, OPIDIN predicts that the water level the next fortnight will increase not as fast as the last fortnight. When these rainfall forecasts appear to be correct, the peak of the flood will be not as high as 2003.
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Bulletin 13 | 31 October 2015

The water level on the gauge of Mopti reached this year its peak on 27 October and remained for five days on the same level of 622 cm. While the water level in Mopti will decrease again from early November onwards, the flood level will still increase in the central part of Inner Niger Delta for some weeks and in the northern Inner Niger Delta still during the entire month November.

The prediction of the flood level by OPIDIN was this year accurate again. We hope to further improve OPIDIN by making a better use of the on-line satellite data of the daily rainfall in the Niger Basin. The prediction of the flood level by OPIDIN can never be very accurate, however, because the model is based on the most recent daily measurements of the water level in Mopti in combination with the daily rainfall estimates in the upper Bani and upper Niger during the foregoing weeks, and thus does not take into account the still unknown rainfall in the catchment area in the following weeks. That is also the reason why OPIDIN can never produce an accurate prediction in the early raining season. Global predictions of the expected rainfall in the coming weeks are used, however, as global background information in the bulletins.

It took some time before the website www.opidin.org  was found by the potential users. The website was launched in June 2013, with 30 visits in June 2013, 151 visits in July 2013, 199 visits in Augustus and 155 in September. In 2014, there were in June - September 151, 238, 250 and 257 visits, respectively and this year 1444, 1091, 624 and 408 visits in the same four months. That the number of visitors reach a peak in June-September, was to be expected assuming that people visit the site to know the predicted flood level in the months before the actual peak is reached in October - November. For the same reason, OPIDIN is less often visited between October and May.

So far, the OPIDIN site had 8865 visits by - in total - 7054 users. Many users visited the site only once (spending on average 57 seconds on the site), - apparently mostly people searching for something different. In contrast, returning visitors remained, on average, 313 seconds on the site during a visit. Last three years there were 160 users which visited the site at least 30 times.

When the visitors are split up per country, there were still more visitors in Europe than in West Africa, but when a selection is made per city, most users were found in Bamako, Mali.

Still 97% of the visitors used a desktop and not more than 2.3% a smartphone and 0.7% a tablet. A fast increase of the smartphone users is to be expected as soon as smartphones will become more generally used in Mali.

Bulletin 12 | 13 October 2015

The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 604 cm on 12 October. OPIDIN predicts that  the peak in Mopti will be reached within a week, likely even within a couple of days.

The flood level will be at its maximum in Akka between 17 and 21 November and in Diré between 23 November and 1 December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 12 October.

OPIDIN predicts that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé between 18 November and 2 December. This prediction is based on the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé during the last 30 years.

OPIDIN has made predictions of the flood level since 1 August. The predictions for the peak flood level in Mopti has varied this year between 570 cm (on 28 August) and 651 cm (on 10 August). The variation in the daily predictions became smaller later in the season. The predictions since 5 September varied between 591 and 616 cm on the scale of Mopti, and since 19 September still even less, mostly being between 609 and 613 cm.

We thought last week that the peak was already nearly reached because the water level has remained for six days at a same level of 590 cm, but on 7 October the water level in Mopti rose 5 cm and another 9 cm in the following 5 days. Possibly this has much to do with an exceptional heavy rainfall in eastern Guinea-Conakry and western Mali on 6 October.

Bulletin 11 | 7 October 2015

The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 590 cm on 1 October and has remained on this level now for five days. Most likely the peak in Mopti has now been reached.

The flood level will be at its maximum in Akka between 12 and 16 November and in Diré likely between 27 November and 5 December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 5 October.

OPIDIN predicts that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé between 18 November and 2 December. This prediction is based on the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé during the last 30 years.

OPIDIN has made predictions of the flood level since 1 August. The predictions for the peak flood level in Mopti has varied this year between 570 cm (on 28 August) and 651 cm (on 10 August). The variation in the daily predictions became smaller later in the season. The predictions since 5 September varied between 591 and 616 cm on the scale of Mopti, not far from the peak most likely be reached this year, but nevertheless systematically a bit too high.

Bulletin 10 | 1 October 2015

Based on the information available on 1 October, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be as high as 2013 and 2014 and about 20 cm higher as last year. The prediction of the flood level is  certain.

The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 590 cm on 1 October. The water level in Mopti will still increase with 20-30 cm until the peak is reached in Mopti between 20 and 28 October. The flood level will be at its maximum in Akka between 14 and 18 November and in Diré likely between 30 November and 8 December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 1 October.

The flow of the Niger reached its peak on 13 September in Koulikoro, on 18 September in Kirango and on 20 September in Ké-Macina. Also the flow of the Bani decreased now, reaching its peak in Benéni Kégny on 16 September and in Sofara on 24 September.

OPIDIN predicts that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé between 20 November and 2 December. This prediction is based on the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé during the last 30 years.

Bulletin 9 | 23 September 2015

Based on the information available on 23 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be as high as 2013 and 2014 and about 20 cm higher as last year. The prediction of the flood level is nearly certain.

The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 582 cm on 23 September. The water level in Mopti will still increase with about 30 cm until the peak is reached in Mopti between 17 and 25 October. The flood level will be at its maximum in Akka between 13 and 17 November and in Diré likely between 25 November and 3 December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 23 September, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani.

The rainfall in the catchment area of the Niger and Bani Rivers during the last 3 weeks has been above-average for this time of the year, with a lot of rain on 1, 2, 4, 6, 15, 18 and 19 September. This explains why the prediction of the peak flood level has gradually gone up during September. Between 6 and 15 September, OPIDIN still predicted a peak flood level of 598 cm but this has since then increased  to 614 cm at present.

OPIDIN predicts that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé between 20 November and 2 December. This prediction is based on the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé during the last 30 years.

Bulletin 8 | 16 September 2015

Based on the information available on 14 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be as high as last year and thus not as high as in 2012 and 2013. The prediction of the flood level is nearly certain.

The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 548 cm on 14 September. The water level in Mopti will still increase with 40 to 60 cm until the peak is reached in Mopti between 14 and 22 October. The flood level will be at its maximum in Akka between 15 and 21 November and in Diré likely between 7 and 17 December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 14 September, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani.

OPIDIN predicts that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé between 18 and 30 November. This prediction is based on the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé during the last 30 years.

Bulletin 7 | 9 September 2015

Based on the information available on 9 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be about as high as last year and not as high as in 2012 and 2013. The prediction of the flood level is not yet fully certain, but there is no doubt that the flood will be higher than in 2011 and lower than in 2007-2010.

The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 527 cm on 9 September. The water level in Mopti will still increase with about 70 cm until the peak is reached in Mopti between 13 and 21 October. The flood level will be at its maximum in Akka mid-November and in Diré in the second half of November. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 9 September, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with no days with a lot of rain during the last week.

There has fallen a lot of rain in Mali, and also in Senegal and Burkina Faso, during last August. The flooding of the Inner Niger Delta, however, mainly depends on the rainfall in the south-western part of Mali and in the eastern part of Guinee-Conakry, where the total rainfall was only a bit higher than what is normal for this time of the year. This explains why the flooding of the Inner Niger Delta will not be not as high as in 2012 and 2013, despite there was a lot of rain in, and around, the Inner Niger Delta.

OPIDIN predicts that the south-western part of the Inner Niger Delta will become available for grazing cattle in the second half of November. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, OPIDIN predicts that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé on about 15 - 20 November.

Bulletin 6 | 2 September 2015

Based on the information available on 2 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be about as high as last year and not as high as in 2012 and 2013. The prediction of the flood level is not yet fully certain, but it has become very likely that the flood will be higher than in 2011 and lower than in 2007-2010.

The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 478 cm on 2 September. The water level in Mopti will still increase with one meter until the peak is reached in Mopti between 14 and 18 October. The flood level will be at its maximum in Akka in the first half of November and in Diré in the second half of November. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 2 September, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with two rainy days during the last week (27 and 31 August).

There has fallen a lot of rain in Mali, and also in Senegal and Burkina Faso, during last August. The flooding of the Inner Niger Delta, however, mainly depends on the rainfall in the south-western part of Mali and in the eastern part of Guinee-Conakry, where the total rainfall was only a bit higher than what is normal for this time of the year. This explains why the flooding of the Inner Niger Delta will not be not as high as in 2012 and 2013, despite there was a lot of rain in, and around, the Inner Niger Delta.

OPIDIN predicts that the southwestern part of the Inner Niger Delta will become available for grazing cattle in the second half of November. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, OPIDIN predicts that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé on about 15 - 20 November.

Bulletin 5 | 26 August 2015

Based on the information available on 26 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be about as high as the last three years. The prediction of the flood level is not yet certain, but it has become very likely that the flood will be higher than 2011 but not as high as in 2007-2011.

The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 438 cm on 26 August. The water level in Mopti will still increase with 1,5 meter until the peak is reached in Mopti between 14 and 22 October. The flood level will be at its maximum in Akka in the first half of November and in Diré in the first half of December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 26 August, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with two rainy days during the last week (21 and 24 August).

So far, the total rainfall in the Upper Bani and Upper Niger during this year has been much higher than in 2014, even higher than in 2013, but not yet as high as in 2012. The weather forecast for the coming week is a rainfall being above the long-term average for this time of the year. If true, it  becomes likely that the flood will become a bit higher than in 2014.

Bulletin 4 | 20 August 2015

Based on the information available on 19 August, we predict that the flood in 2015 will about as high as the last three years. The prediction of the flood level is not yet certain, however, because we still have to wait how much rain will fall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming week.

The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 399 cm on 19 August. We predict now that the water level in Mopti will increase with 2 m until the peak is reached in Mopti between 14 and 22 October. We also expect that the flood level will be at its maximum in Akka in the first half of November and in Diré in mid-December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 19 August, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with four rainy days during the last week (14, 15, 17, 18 August).

We predict now a flood being about as high as in 2012-2014, which is lower than what we predicted a week ago. The water level in Mopti increased by 9 cm per day, on average, between 6 and 12 August. The water level in  Mopti still increased during the last seven days, but only by 4 cm per day. As a consequence, the prediction of the peak flood level was gradually downgraded 10 cm. We had to lower our prediction of the peak flood during the last week still more because the total rainfall in the Upper Niger and Upper Bani was last week not as high as predicted and even 40% lower than the week before.

So far, the total rainfall in the Upper Bani and Upper Niger during this year has been much higher than in 2014, even higher than in 2013, but not yet as high as in 2012. The weather forecast for the coming week is a rainfall being above the long-term average for this time of the year. If true, it is becoming more likely that the flood will higher than in 2014. 

Bulletin 3 | 11 August 2015

Based on the information available on 10 August, we predict that the flood in 2015 will be higher as the last years. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming fortnight.

The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 355 cm on 10 August. We predict that the water level in Mopti will show a large increase the coming week and in total still increase with 2,5 m, and possibly even more, until the peak is reached in Mopti in the second half of October. We also expect that the flood level will be at its maximum in Akka late November and in Diré in late December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on10 August, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with six very wet days last week (4-8 and 10 August). The rainfall in the region of Mopti and Tombouctou was even exceptionally high on 5, 8 and 10 August. The rainfall has been last week not much higher than average in the upper catchment area of the Niger. Indeed, the river flow at Koulikoro, Kirango and Ke-Macina has shown only a small increase last week. In contrast, the flow of the Bani has increased considerably, due to the recent, heavy rainfall in the entire Bani Basin. The flow of the Bani will further increase next week due to the heavy rainfall in the Bani Basin on 10 August.

We predict now a higher flood level as a fortnight ago. Using the historical measurements of the water level in Mopti, we predict a flood being about as high as average, calculated for the 20 last years. However, taking into account the recent, heavy rainfall, the model predicts a flood level being considerably higher as the last years. We have to be careful, however: before mid-August the prediction is not yet accurate. We may only say that a high flood has become more and more likely. We know for sure already, however, that the flooding in 2015 will certainly not be as poor as in 2002 or 2011.

Bulletin 2 | 5 August 2015

Based on the information available on 5 August, we predict that the flood in 2015 will be as high as last year, but probably higher. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming weeks.

The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 301 cm on 5 August. We predict that the water level will still increase about 300 cm until the peak is reached in Mopti in the second half of October. We also expect that the flood level will be at its maximum in Akka in the second half of November and in Diré in the second half of December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 5 August, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with four wet days in the last week of July (22, 24, 26 and 28 July). A lot of rain in the Upper Niger and in the Bani, more than the long-term average, was predicted for the first half of August, but there have been no very wet days last week. Still much rain is expected, however, more than average, for the next week. If this proved to be correct, the flood level will become higher as predicted now, and thus also higher as in 2014. The prediction of the flood will be more precise next week.

Bulletin 1 | 29 July 2015

Based on the information available on 29 July, we predict that the flood in 2015 will be as high as in 2014, but probably higher. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming weeks.

The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started late this year with not much rain in May and June, in the Upper Niger as well as in the Upper Bani. The rainfall was also still below average in the Upper Bani between 11th and 20th July, but fortunately above average in the same period in the Upper Niger. This explains why the water level in the Lower Bani (at Bénény Kegny and Sofara) has hardly increased the last weeks and is still very low until now, whereas the water level in the Upper Niger (at Koulikoro) increased relatively fast from 15 July onwards. 

The water level in Mopti remained at a low level until 22 July, but has increased 100 cm between 22 and 29 July. The water level in Mopti reached on 29 July (272 cm) was still relatively low, however, compared to other years, being a first indication that the flood will be not high this year. However, we are not pessimistic about the flooding this year for two reasons. First, there was a lot rain the last days (24 July in the Upper Bani and 26 July in the Upper Niger), so we expect a further increase of the water level the coming week. More important is that a lot of rain is expected for the period 29 July – 11 August. This is always the period with the highest rainfall, but the meteorological predictions are that the rainfall for this period will be above the long-term average. If these meteorological predictions proved to be correct, the flood level will become higher as in 2014. The prediction of the flood will be more precise next week.

 
 

Bulletin 12 | 3 November 2014 

This is the last OPIDIN bulletin of 2014. The water level in Mopti has reached its peak (596 cm) on 23 October. The flood predictions of OPIDIN since 1 August have varied not much. In August, we predicted a peak flood level of 550-600 cm. In early September we gradually downgraded the prediction to about 550 cm, but in the following weeks the prediction was gradually upgraded to 580-600 cm and still later to 590-600 cm. Hence, the forecasting during the last three months was usually close to the actually observed peak flood level in Mopti, but was 40-50 cm too low in the first half of September.

OPIDIN has started in 2013. In that year, the prediction was based on the water level measurements in Mopti. This year the predictions could be improved by integrating in the model the most recent rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin. Next year we hope to be able to further improve the predictions and also start one week earlier.

Until 3-11-2014, we have registered 2310 visits to the OPIDIN-site, in total by 1186 users from 97 different countries. So far, OPIDIN is more popular in the Netherlands (887 visits by 299 users) than in Mali (298 visits by 124 users), but there were the last months more users from Mali than from the Netherlands. Apparently, it took some time before people in Mali discovered the OPIDIN-site. For this reason, we expect that the OPIDIN-site in the next years will be visited more and more by Malian users.

As expected, the site is mostly visited in July, August and September. In total, 95% of the visitors so far used a desktop computer, 3% a mobile and 2% a tablet, but the last months an increasing number of visitors used their mobile or tablet.

The following bulletin will be published in the second half of July 2015.

Bulletin 11 | 13 October 2014

Based on the information available on 13 October, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 35 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 50 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level certain.

The daily increase of the water level in Mopti has further slowed down water level and has increased only 4 cm last week. We predict that the water level in Mopti will still increase 1 - 7 cm in the course of the coming week. The predictions have not changed since last week.

At an expected peak flood of 587 cm (± 3 cm) in Mopti, we may also estimate the date at which the bourgou fields in the southwestern part of the Inner Niger Delta will be available for grazing cattle. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, we may predict that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé on about 22 November (between 15 and 30 November). 

We predict now that the maximum flood  level in Akka will be reached between 9 and 13 November; its peak level will be 442 cm (± 7 cm), which corresponds with an estimated total flooded area of 12 600 km2.

The flood in Diré will be at its peak between 15 and 23 November and reach a maximum level of 469 cm (± 5 cm). At such a low level, we know for sure that this year no river water will reach Lac Faguibine.

Bulletin 10 | 5 October 2014

Based on the information available on 5 October, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 35-40 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 45-50 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.

The daily increase of the water level in Mopti has further slowed down water level and has increased only 34 cm last fortnight. We predict that the water level in Mopti will still increase 9 - 17 cm the coming 10 -17 days. The predictions have not changed since last week.

At an expected peak flood of 591 cm (± 4 cm) in Mopti, we may also estimate the date at which the bourgou fields in the southwestern part of the Inner Niger Delta will be available for grazing cattle. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, we may predict that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé on about 22 November (between 15 and 30 November). 

We predict now that the maximum flood level in Akka will be reached between 8 and 12 November; its peak level will be 447 cm (± 8 cm), which corresponds with an estimated total flooded area of 12 600 km2.

The flood in Diré will be at its peak between 18 and 27 November and reach a maximum level of 481 cm (± 6 cm). At such a low level, we know for sure that this year no river water will reach Lac Faguibine.

Bulletin 9 | 29 September 2014

Based on the information available on 29 September, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 35 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 50 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.

The daily increase of the water level in Mopti has further slowed down water level and has increased only 9 cm last week. We predict that the water level in Mopti will still increase 14 to 24 cm the coming 20 days. The predictions have not changed since last week.

At an expected peak flood of 586 cm (± 5 cm) in Mopti, we may also estimate the date at which the bourgou fields in the southwestern part of the Inner Niger Delta will be available for grazing cattle. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, we may predict that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé on about 22 November (between 15 and 30 November). 

We predict now that the maximum flood level in Akka will be reached between 8 and 12 November; its peak level will be 441 cm (± 8 cm), which corresponds with an estimated total flooded area of 12 400 km2.

The flood in Diré will be at its peak between 18 and 26 November and reach a maximum level of 476 cm (± 6 cm). At such a low level, we know for sure that this year no river water will reach Lac Faguibine.

Bulletin 8 | 22 September 2014 

Based on the information available on 22 September, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 35 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 50 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.

The daily predictions of the peak flood in Mopti since 1 August have varied between 550 and 600 cm. In early September we still thought that the flood would be close to this lower limit, but due to the above-average rise of the  water level in Mopti during the last fortnight, the prediction of the flooding has been gradually upgraded 30 cm since 8 September when our prediction was at its lowest level. The daily increase of the water level in Mopti starts to slow down and we expect that the water level will still go 30-40 cm in the next 20-25 days to reach its peak between 14 and 18 October.

At an expected peak flood of 586 cm (± 5 cm) in Mopti, we may also estimate the date at which the bourgou fields in the southwestern part of the Inner Niger Delta will be available for grazing cattle. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, we may predict that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé on about 22 November (between 15 and 30 November). 

We predict now that the maximum flood level in Akka will be reached between 9 and 13 November; its peak level will be 443 cm (± 8 cm), which corresponds with an estimated total flooded area of 12 400 km2.

The flood in Diré will be at its peak between 21 and 29 November and reach a maximum level of 481 cm (± 6 cm). At such a low level, we know for sure that this year no river water will reach Lac Faguibine.

Bulletin 7 | 11 September 2014

Based on the information available on 11 September, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 60 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 20 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.

The water level in Mopti increased only 42 cm between 26 August and 8 September. Since also the rainfall in this period was less than average, the predicted peak of the flood in Mopti gradually declined during these 14 days from 583 cm to 547 cm. Due to the sudden rise of the water level by 20 cm on 9 and 10 September, the predicted flood in Mopti was upgraded 9 cm during the last two days. We expect that the water level will still go up for 4 weeks and reach its peak in Mopti between 9 and 17 October.

At an expected peak flood of 556 cm (± 10 cm) in Mopti, we may also estimate the date at which the bourgou fields in the southwestern part of the Inner Niger Delta will be available for grazing cattle. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, we may predict that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé on about 20 November (between 10 and 30 November). 

We predict now that the maximum flood level in Akka will be reached between 4 and 11 November; its peak level will be 412 cm (± 14 cm), which corresponds with an estimated total flooded area of 10.900 km2.

The flood in Diré will be at its peak between 18 and 28 November and reach a maximum level of 473 cm (± 10 cm). At such a low level, we know for sure that this year no river water will reach Lac Faguibine.

Bulletin 6 | 6 September 2014

Based on the information available on 6 September, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 50  cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 10 – 20 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.

The water level in Mopti increased only 21 cm last 10 days to reach on 6 September a level of 478 cm, which is 53 cm below the average calculated over the last 20 years for this date. That is why the peak flood level will be relatively low this year. The water level in Mopti will still rise 60 - 90 cm and reach its peak already before half October.

The prediction on 1 August was that the water level in Mopti would reach a peak between 550 and 600 cm. We still thought in mid-August that the peak would be in the higher half of this range (between 570 and 600 cm), because of the above-average rainfall in the upper Basin in the preceding week. However, the prediction has since then gradually been downgraded to 550 – 570 cm because the water level in Mopti has shown a remarkably slow increase in late August and early September and the rainfall in the upper Basin has been relatively low in the same period.

Bulletin 5 | 28 August 2014

Based on the information available on 28 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be a bit lower than 2012 or 2013 and half a meter higher than 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.

The water level in Mopti increased 43 cm last week to reach on 28 August a level of 444 cm, which is 46 cm below the average calculated over the last 20 years for this date. That is why the peak flood level will not be high this year. The water level in Mopti will still rise 1,5 m and reach its peak half October. The predictions regarding the rainfall in the catchment area of the Upper Niger and the Bani for the coming week are close to what is normal in this time of the year. That is why we assume that the level and the date of the actual peak flood will not deviate much from the current prediction.

Bulletin 4 | 21 August 2014

Based on the information available on 21 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be a bit lower than 2012 or 2013and half a meter higher than 2011. The prediction of the flood level is not fully certain, however. Depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming fortnight, the flood can be still a bit higher or lower than predicted now.

The water level in Mopti increased 55 cm last week to reach on 20 August a level of 400 cm, which is 40 cm below the average calculated over the last 20 years for this date. This does not necessarily mean that the peak flood level will be low, but it becomes very unlikely that the peak flood will be high this year. There was last week more rainfall in the Upper Bani and Niger than the weeks before. That is why the predicted flood level in Mopti has been upgraded 16 cm during the last week. The predictions regarding the rainfall in the catchment area of the Upper Niger and the Bani for the coming days are above to what is normal in this time of the year. That is why the predicted flood level may still be a bit higher than predicted at present, but the difference will be small.

Bulletin 3 | 14 August 2014

Based on the information available on 14 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be lower than 2012 or 2013 but higher than 2011. The prediction of the flood level is not yet certain, however. Depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming fortnight, the flood can be still a bit higher or lower than predicted now.

The water level in Mopti increases slowly and remained even at the same level between 3 and 8 August. The water level in Mopti reached on 13 August a level of 347 cm, which is 33 cm below the average calculated over the last 20 years for this date. This does not necessarily mean that the peak flood level will be low, but it becomes very likely that the peak flood will be not high this year. The predictions regarding the rainfall in the catchment area of the Niger and Bani for the coming week are close to what is normal in this time of the year, so the predicted flood level will not change much next week. If the rainfall in late August would be extremely high, it is still possible that the peak flood will be higher than predicted now, but the flood will not become higher than 2013 and 2012.

Bulletin 2 | 7 August 2014

Based on the information available on 7 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be lower than in 2012 or 2013 but higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming weeks.

The water level in Mopti increased 25 cm between 29 and 31 July, but only 16 cm during the last 7 days. The water level in Mopti reached on 7 August a level of 297 cm, which is 25 cm below the average calculated over the last 20 years for this date. This does not necessarily mean that the flood level will be low, but it becomes more and more unlikely that the peak flood will be high this year. The rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin was below average until late July, which was the reason for a rather pessimistic flood prediction last week. The flood prediction has not changed last week, since also in early August the rainfall in the Upper Basins was below the long-term average. That is why we predict a peak flood for this year being lower than average and thus also lower than the last two years. It is unlikely, however, that the flood level in 2014 will be very low (as in 2011), because the predictions regarding the rainfall in the catchment area of the Niger and Bani for the coming week are not bad. The rainy season still lasts some weeks, so the current predictions are still unsure.

Bulletin 1 | 1 August 2014

Based on the information available on 1 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be lower than 2013 and possibly even nearly as low as 2011. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming weeks.

The water level in Mopti remained at a low level until 21 July, but increased 75 cm between 21 and 31 July. We expect a low flood in 2014 since the water level in Mopti on 31 July (280 cm) is relatively low compared to other years, whereas the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the last weeks has been relatively poor; there were in July only two days (13 and 24 July) with a lot of rain in the Upper Niger Basin. Not much rainfall is predicted for the Upper Niger Basin during the next 6 days. If these meteorological predictions proved to be correct, the flood level might become as low as 2012. The rainy season still lasts some weeks, so the current predictions are still unsure.

 


 
Bulletin 9 | 21 October 2013

The water level has reached its peak in Mopti this year on 14 October (621 cm) and remained at that level until 19 October, declining by 1 cm on 20 and 21 October and by 2 cm on 22 and 23 October.

The water is still increasing in the northern half of the Inner Niger Delta Akka and will reach its peak in the second half of November. 

This is the last OPIDIN-Bulletin of 2013. We will work on a further improvement of OPIDIN. One of the ideas to integrate the recent rainfall in the Upper Bani and Upper Niger into the model to achieve a more accurate prediction. Contact us if you have suggestions and visit the site again from late June 2014 onwards to see the prediction of the flood in 2014.

Bulletin 8 | 11 October 2013

Based on the information available on 11 October, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be as high as in 2007, 2008 and 2009 and nearly as high as in 2010 and 2012. The prediction of the peak flood has not changed any more since 3 September and will not change anymore. 

The water level in Mopti amounted to 618 cm on 11 October. The water level has increased 9 cm last 10 days and most likely it will increase still some cm the coming days and reach its peak half October. The water level in the northern half of the Delta will still go up until November in Akka and Dire.

Bulletin 7 | 1 October 2013

Based on the information available on 1 October, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be as high as in 2010 and 2012. The prediction of the peak flood has not changed any more since 3 September and will not change anymore. 

The water level in Mopti amounted to 603 cm on 1 October. The water level has increased only a few cm last week and most likely it will still increase some cm the next week and reach its peak half October. The water level in the northern half of the Delta will still go up until November in Akka and Dire.

Bulletin 6 | 21 September 2013

Based on the information available on 21 September, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be as high as in 2010 and 2012. The prediction of the peak flood has not changed any more since 3 September and it is very unlikely that it will change much during the coming weeks. 

The water level in Mopti on 21 September amounted to 597 cm. We expect now that the water level in Mopti will increase still about 40 cm in the coming three or four weeks to reach its peak in the second half of October. The flood will reach its peak in Akka in mid-November and in Diré in late November.

Bulletin 5 | 11 September 2013

Based on the information available on 11 September, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be as high as in 2010 and 2012 and possibly even a bit higher since the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin in the first ten days of September was 30% above average and in the Basin of the Bani River even 80% above the average (averages calculated for the years 1996-2012). 

The rainy season started late this year, as a consequence of which the water level in Mopti remained at a relatively low level in Mopti until 10 August. The water level was so low in early August that we feared for a poor flooding as in 2005 and 2006 (although not as low as in 2011). Fortunately, August was wet in the Upper Niger, and very wet in the Upper Bani. For that reason, the water level in Mopti increased a lot between 11 August and 1 September, causing an upgrade of the flood prediction by 73 cm, from 547 cm (prediction on 10 August) to 622 cm (prediction on 1 September). Between 1 and 11 September, the predicted peak level was upgraded another 14 cm (from 622 to 636 cm on the scale of Mopti). 

The water level in Mopti on 11 September amounted to 575 cm. We expect now that the water level in Mopti will increase another 61 cm to reach a peak of 636 cm in the second half of October and (due to the above-average recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani) possibly still a bit higher.

Bulletin 4 | 1 September 2013

Based on the information available on 1 September, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be about as high as in 2010 and 2012. The prediction of the flood level is still not fully certain, however. It depends on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming week to what degree the peak flood level will deviate from the present prediction.

The rainy season started late this year, as a consequence of which the water level in Mopti remained at a relatively low level in Mopti until 10 August. The water level was so low in early August that we feared for a poor flooding as in 2005 and 2006 (although not as low as in 2011). Fortunately, August was wet in the Upper Niger, and very wet in the Upper Bani. For that reason, the water level in Mopti increased a lot between 11 August and 1 September, causing an upgrade of the flood prediction by 73 cm, from 547 (prediction on 10 August) to 620 cm (prediction on 1 September). We predict for this year that the flood peak will be reached in the second half of October in Mopti and be as high as in 2007-2010 and 2012.

Bulletin 3 | 21 August 2013

Based on the information available on 21 August, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be not as high as in 2010 and 2012 but not as low as in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming week.
It becomes more and more likely that 2013 will be a year with a peak flood level being lower than in most of the years since 1994. The water level in Mopti was in July lower than in other years and only slowly increased in the first ten days of August. The rainy season started late this year, as a consequence of which the water level in Mopti started to increase not earlier than from about 11 August onwards. The increase of the water level since then was relatively fast, nearly 10 cm per day. The fast increase of the water level between 11 and 21 August caused an upgrade of the flood prediction by 22 cm. The recent rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin, and especially in the Upper, Middle and Lower Bani, has been higher than normal for this time of the year. Hence we expect that the water level in Mopti will continue to increase relatively fast in the last 10 days of August which will result in a peak flood level being probably 40-80 cm higher than predicted now from the water level measured in Mopti on 21 August.

Bulletin 2 | 11 August 2013

Based on the information available on 11 August, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be not as high as in 2010 and 2012 but not as low as in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming weeks.

It becomes more and more likely that 2013 will be a year with a peak flood level being lower than in most of the years since 1994. The water level in Mopti was in July lower than in other years and only slowly increased in the first ten days of August. That is why the prediction of the peak flood in Mopti has been downgraded 13 cm between 1 and 11 August. Fortunately, the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin has been higher than normal for this time of the year. Hence we expect that the next fortnight the water level in the Inner Niger Delta will go up faster than last week which will result in a peak flood level being probably 40-80 cm higher than predicted now from the water level measured in Mopti on 11 August.

Bulletin 1 | 1 August 2013

Based on the information available on 1 August, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be probably not as high as in 2012, but it is unlikely that the flood will as low as in 2011. Thus, the flood level will deviate not much from the years 2006-2010. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming weeks.

The water level in Mopti remained at a low level until 27 July, but increased between 27 July and 1 August with 71 cm in total. Normally, the water level increases 5-6 cm per day in this time of the year, but in these five days, it was much higher: 10 to 17 cm per day. If it would continue like that, the flood peak would become very high. That is not to be expected, however. The fast increase of the water level in late July was due to the above-average rainfall in the Upper Niger until mid-July.  The rainfall in mid and late July in the Upper Niger, however, was quite normal or even a bit below the long-term average. That is why we expect that the water level will rise more slowly the next fortnight and the peak flood not reach a high level.