August saw a rapid rise in water levels in Mopti and this continued until mid-September. Thereafter, the increase in the water level in Mopti slowed down somewhat and the tide rose by an average of 1-2 cm per day between mid-September and early October. A level of 660 cm was reached on 26 September and seemed to be stabilising. However, due to heavy rainfall upstream, there was still a slow increase afterwards, and the water level at the Mopti gauge was reaching 671 cm on 9 October. Such high water levels were only reached after 20 October in the recent wet years 2018 and 2020. Based on this high water level and the flattening of the increase, the peak seems to be almost reached. Since there still has been rainfall upstream in recent weeks, a further slight increase cannot be ruled out. With this, the crue reaches the highest level since 1969.
The expectation of a high crue matches the above-average rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin. There has been rainfall in recent weeks but no more above-average precipitation is expected in the coming period.