3 August 2017
Based on the information available on 3 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will not be as high as in 2016 and the three years before, but above average. This may be due to the modest rainfall (just above average) recorded during the first few months of the rainy season. However, the prediction of the flood level is still uncertain. Much can still change depending on the rainfall in the upper Niger basin during the coming weeks.
The water level was still low in Mopti on 13 July with 250 cm, but it increased in the second half of July to reach a level of 375 cm on 3rd August. Since 1970, the water level in Mopti is usually about 300 cm in early August, so it is above normal 75 cm this year.
The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started rather normal this year, but with relatively heavy rains in July in Upper Niger as well as in Upper Baní. The cumulative rainfall of the weeks was also higher than normal at this time of year. The weather models forecast for the coming week a rainfall being above average. For this reason, the water level may show a rather strong increase during the next fortnight.