10 August 2017
Based on the information available on 10 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will not be as high as in 2016. With the current available information it is forecasted that the flood will reach a level being comparable with last years (2015, 2013, 2012). However, the prediction of the flood level is still uncertain. Much can still change depending on the rainfall in the upper Niger basin during the coming weeks.
The water level in Mopti reached the level of 420 cm on 10 August, resulting in an increase of 45 cm compared to the previous week. It is expected, that the water level in Mopti will show a further increase in the coming week until the peak is reached in Mopti in the second half of October. Based on OPIDIN, the level of flooding will be at its maximum in Akka during the third week of November and in Diré at the end of November. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on10 August, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with very rainy days during the last week.
The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but with relatively much rain in July, and an upward trend until the first decade of August in Upper Niger as well as in Upper Baní. The rainfall in the first ten days of August was also higher than normal in this time of the year. The weather models forecast for coming week again a rainfall being above average. For this reason, it is expected that the water level will show a relatively fast increase during at least the coming fortnight.