31 August 2017
Based on the information available on 31 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will not be as high as in 2016. With the current available information it is forecasted that the flood will reach a modest level: a bit lower than in 2015. However, the prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin over the next weeks.
The water level in Mopti reached the level of 502 cm on 31 August, resulting in an increase of 17 cm compared to the previous week. The relative rapid increase from the beginning of this month to 26 August, slowed down a bit afterwards. It is expected, that the water level in Mopti will reach its peak in the second decade of October (Akka during second week of November and in Diré 3 days later). These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 31 August, but also take into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with few rainy days during the last week.
The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but with relatively much rain in July, and an upward trend until the second half of August in Upper Niger as well as in Upper Baní. The rainfall in August was also higher than normal in this time of the year. The weather models forecast for the coming weeks a rainfall being below-average. For this reason, it is expected that the slowdown of the increase in water level may continue.