1 September 2013
Based on the information available on 1 September, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be about as high as in 2010 and 2012. The prediction of the flood level is still not fully certain, however. It depends on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming week to what degree the peak flood level will deviate from the present prediction.
The rainy season started late this year, as a consequence of which the water level in Mopti remained at a relatively low level in Mopti until 10 August. The water level was so low in early August that we feared for a poor flooding as in 2005 and 2006 (although not as low as in 2011). Fortunately, August was wet in the Upper Niger, and very wet in the Upper Bani. For that reason, the water level in Mopti increased a lot between 11 August and 1 September, causing an upgrade of the flood prediction by 73 cm, from 547 (prediction on 10 August) to 620 cm (prediction on 1 September). We predict for this year that the flood peak will be reached in the second half of October in Mopti and be as high as in 2007-2010 and 2012.