22 September 2014
Based on the information available on 22 September, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 35 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 50 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.
The daily predictions of the peak flood in Mopti since 1 August have varied between 550 and 600 cm. In early September we still thought that the flood would be close to this lower limit, but due to the above-average rise of the water level in Mopti during the last fortnight, the prediction of the flooding has been gradually upgraded 30 cm since 8 September when our prediction was at its lowest level. The daily increase of the water level in Mopti starts to slow down and we expect that the water level will still go 30-40 cm in the next 20-25 days to reach its peak between 14 and 18 October.
At an expected peak flood of 586 cm (± 5 cm) in Mopti, we may also estimate the date at which the bourgou fields in the southwestern part of the Inner Niger Delta will be available for grazing cattle. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, we may predict that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé on about 22 November (between 15 and 30 November).
We predict now that the maximum flood level in Akka will be reached between 9 and 13 November; its peak level will be 443 cm (± 8 cm), which corresponds with an estimated total flooded area of 12 400 km2.
The flood in Diré will be at its peak between 21 and 29 November and reach a maximum level of 481 cm (± 6 cm). At such a low level, we know for sure that this year no river water will reach Lac Faguibine.