7 October 2015
The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 590 cm on 1 October and has remained on this level now for five days. Most likely the peak in Mopti has now been reached.
The flood level will be at its maximum in Akka between 12 and 16 November and in Diré likely between 27 November and 5 December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 5 October.
OPIDIN predicts that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé between 18 November and 2 December. This prediction is based on the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé during the last 30 years.
OPIDIN has made predictions of the flood level since 1 August. The predictions for the peak flood level in Mopti has varied this year between 570 cm (on 28 August) and 651 cm (on 10 August). The variation in the daily predictions became smaller later in the season. The predictions since 5 September varied between 591 and 616 cm on the scale of Mopti, not far from the peak most likely be reached this year, but nevertheless systematically a bit too high.