11 August 2015
Based on the information available on 10 August, we predict that the flood in 2015 will be higher as the last years. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming fortnight.
The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 355 cm on 10 August. We predict that the water level in Mopti will show a large increase the coming week and in total still increase with 2,5 m, and possibly even more, until the peak is reached in Mopti in the second half of October. We also expect that the flood level will be at its maximum in Akka late November and in Diré in late December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on10 August, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with six very wet days last week (4-8 and 10 August). The rainfall in the region of Mopti and Tombouctou was even exceptionally high on 5, 8 and 10 August. The rainfall has been last week not much higher than average in the upper catchment area of the Niger. Indeed, the river flow at Koulikoro, Kirango and Ke-Macina has shown only a small increase last week. In contrast, the flow of the Bani has increased considerably, due to the recent, heavy rainfall in the entire Bani Basin. The flow of the Bani will further increase next week due to the heavy rainfall in the Bani Basin on 10 August.
We predict now a higher flood level as a fortnight ago. Using the historical measurements of the water level in Mopti, we predict a flood being about as high as average, calculated for the 20 last years. However, taking into account the recent, heavy rainfall, the model predicts a flood level being considerably higher as the last years. We have to be careful, however: before mid-August the prediction is not yet accurate. We may only say that a high flood has become more and more likely. We know for sure already, however, that the flooding in 2015 will certainly not be as poor as in 2002 or 2011.