The water level in Mopti has risen by 83 cm within eight days, from 402 cm on 9 August to 485 cm on 17 August. That is, on average, by 10 cm a day, which is relatively fast compared to other years. The fast increase of the water level last week, makes it more likely that the peak flood in 2021 will be relatively high, probably even as high as the last three years and in 2016.
In an average year, nearly two-thirds of the annual rainfall falls before 17 August. The rainfall in the coming weeks can therefore still have some influence on the flood height. The weather forecast is favorable with above-average rainfall in the upper Niger next week (but unfortunately a forecast for below-average rainfall in the Inner Niger Delta and the surrounding area; local rainfall has no effect on the flood height, but is bad news for farmers).
The flood prediction is still not fully sure and may still vary depending on the amount of rainfall the coming weeks. OPIDIN predicts now that the flood level will be high this year, probably as high as the last years.