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Water level in Mopti

Flood prediction

peak flood level (cm)
Mopti Akka Dire
minimum
mean
maximum
date of peak flooding
Mopti Akka Dire
minimum
mean
maximum
No flooding data was found for this date + level

Legend

The horizontal lines in the graph give the predicted peak flood level in 2014, based on the current measurements of the water level in Mopti. The predicted flood peak is expected to be higher than minimum and lower than maximum and likely near to mean.  The bars show the variation in the annual maximal flood level since 1907 (measured since 1955, but reconstructed in the years before using the water level measurements at other hydrometric stations).

 

The prediction of the peak flood level changes during the course of August and September and becomes more accurate. The changes in the prediction (± confidence interval) is shown below in two graphs. One for the 2011 untill the peak level was reached mid-October and one for this year until the most recent measurement of water level.

Bulletin 9: 21 October 2013

The water level has reached its peak in Mopti this year on 14 October (621 cm) and remained at that level until 19 October, declining by 1 cm on 20 and 21 October and by 2 cm on 22 and 23 October.

The water is still increasing in the northern half of the Inner Niger Delta Akka and will reach its peak in the second half of November. 

This is the last OPIDIN-Bulletin of 2013. We will work on a further improvement of OPIDIN. One of the ideas to integrate the recent rainfall in the Upper Bani and Upper Niger into the model to achieve a more accurate prediction. Contact us if you have suggestions and visit the site again from late June 2014 onwards to see the prediction of the flood in 2014.

 

Bulletin 8: 11 October 2013

Based on the information available on 11 October, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be as high as in 2007, 2008 and 2009 and nearly as high as in 2010 and 2012. The prediction of the peak flood has not changed any more since 3 September and will not change anymore. 

The water level in Mopti amounted to 618 cm on 11 October. The water level has increased 9 cm last 10 days and most likely it will increase still some cm the coming days and reach its peak half October. The water level in the northern half of the Delta will still go up until November in Akka and Dire.

Bulletin 7: 1 October

 

Based on the information available on 1 October, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be as high as in 2010 and 2012. The prediction of the peak flood has not changed any more since 3 September and will not change anymore. 

The water level in Mopti amounted to 603 cm on 1 October. The water level has increased only a few cm last week and most likely it will still increase some cm the next week and reach its peak half October. The water level in the northern half of the Delta will still go up until November in Akka and Dire.

Bulletin 6: 21 September

Based on the information available on 21 September, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be as high as in 2010 and 2012. The prediction of the peak flood has not changed any more since 3 September and it is very unlikely that it will change much during the coming weeks. 

The water level in Mopti on 21 September amounted to 597 cm. We expect now that the water level in Mopti will increase still about 40 cm in the coming three or four weeks to reach its peak in the second half of October. The flood will reach its peak in Akka in mid-November and in Diré in late November.

Bulletin 5: 11 September 2013

Based on the information available on 11 September, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be as high as in 2010 and 2012 and possibly even a bit higher since the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin in the first ten days of September was 30% above average and in the Basin of the Bani River even 80% above the average (averages calculated for the years 1996-2012). 

The rainy season started late this year, as a consequence of which the water level in Mopti remained at a relatively low level in Mopti until 10 August. The water level was so low in early August that we feared for a poor flooding as in 2005 and 2006 (although not as low as in 2011). Fortunately, August was wet in the Upper Niger, and very wet in the Upper Bani. For that reason, the water level in Mopti increased a lot between 11 August and 1 September, causing an upgrade of the flood prediction by 73 cm, from 547 cm (prediction on 10 August) to 622 cm (prediction on 1 September). Between 1 and 11 September, the predicted peak level was upgraded another 14 cm (from 622 to 636 cm on the scale of Mopti). 

The water level in Mopti on 11 September amounted to 575 cm. We expect now that the water level in Mopti will increase another 61 cm to reach a peak of 636 cm in the second half of October and (due to the above-average recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani) possibly still a bit higher.

Bulletin 4: 1 September 2013

Based on the information available on 1 September, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be about as high as in 2010 and 2012. The prediction of the flood level is still not fully certain, however. It depends on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming week to what degree the peak flood level will deviate from the present prediction.

The rainy season started late this year, as a consequence of which the water level in Mopti remained at a relatively low level in Mopti until 10 August. The water level was so low in early August that we feared for a poor flooding as in 2005 and 2006 (although not as low as in 2011). Fortunately, August was wet in the Upper Niger, and very wet in the Upper Bani. For that reason, the water level in Mopti increased a lot between 11 August and 1 September, causing an upgrade of the flood prediction by 73 cm, from 547 (prediction on 10 August) to 620 cm (prediction on 1 September). We predict for this year that the flood peak will be reached in the second half of October in Mopti and be as high as in 2007-2010 and 2012.

Bulletin 3: 21 August 2013

Based on the information available on 21 August, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be not as high as in 2010 and 2012 but not as low as in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming week.
It becomes more and more likely that 2013 will be a year with a peak flood level being lower than in most of the years since 1994. The water level in Mopti was in July lower than in other years and only slowly increased in the first ten days of August. The rainy season started late this year, as a consequence of which the water level in Mopti started to increase not earlier than from about 11 August onwards. The increase of the water level since then was relatively fast, nearly 10 cm per day. The fast increase of the water level between 11 and 21 August caused an upgrade of the flood prediction by 22 cm. The recent rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin, and especially in the Upper, Middle and Lower Bani, has been higher than normal for this time of the year. Hence we expect that the water level in Mopti will continue to increase relatively fast in the last 10 days of August which will result in a peak flood level being probably 40-80 cm higher than predicted now from the water level measured in Mopti on 21 August. 

Bulletin 2: 11 August 2013

Based on the information available on 11 August, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be not as high as in 2010 and 2012 but not as low as in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming weeks.

It becomes more and more likely that 2013 will be a year with a peak flood level being lower than in most of the years since 1994. The water level in Mopti was in July lower than in other years and only slowly increased in the first ten days of August. That is why the prediction of the peak flood in Mopti has been downgraded 13 cm between 1 and 11 August. Fortunately, the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin has been higher than normal for this time of the year. Hence we expect that the next fortnight the water level in the Inner Niger Delta will go up faster than last week which will result in a peak flood level being probably 40-80 cm higher than predicted now from the water level measured in Mopti on 11 August.

Bulletin 1: 1 August 2013

Based on the information available on 1 August, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be probably not as high as in 2012, but it is unlikely that the flood will as low as in 2011. Thus, the flood level will deviate not much from the years 2006-2010. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming weeks.

The water level in Mopti remained at a low level until 27 July, but increased between 27 July and 1 August with 71 cm in total. Normally, the water level increases 5-6 cm per day in this time of the year, but in these five days, it was much higher: 10 to 17 cm per day. If it would continue like that, the flood peak would become very high. That is not to be expected, however. The fast increase of the water level in late July was due to the above-average rainfall in the Upper Niger until mid-July.  The rainfall in mid and late July in the Upper Niger, however, was quite normal or even a bit below the long-term average. That is why we expect that the water level will rise more slowly the next fortnight and the peak flood not reach a high level.

Explanation

The flood viewer is in the air between 1 August and 15 October. It gives a prediction of the peak flood level for three sites in the Inner Niger Delta: Mopti (in the southern Inner Niger Delta); Akka (in the middle) and  Diré (in the north). The flood viewer gives the peak flood level, but also the predicted date at which the water level will reach its peak. It also provides a map of the area being indundated at the specified water level.

It is possible to change the date and the water level between 1 August and 15 October to see the impact on the predicted peak flood level, as well as the date and the flood extent. For further explanation: see figures below.