From 1 August, the water level at Mopti rose sharply, by an average of 7 centimetres a day, to a level of 540 cm on 23 August. In recent years, comparable high water levels on the same date were seen in 2012 (527), 2018 (540) and 2016 (556). Based on this high water level on the Mopti scale and the rainfall that has fallen in recent weeks upstream in the Upper Niger basin, OPIDIN expects a high crue. The crue is expected to reach a level well above 650 cm, higher even than in the very wet years of 2018 and 2020.
The expectation of a high crue fits with the above average amount of rainfall that has fallen in the Upper Niger Basin. There has also been a lot of rain in recent weeks and this is forecast to continue until the end of the month. After that, no above-average rainfall is expected.
The expectation is therefore that the flood will be high this year, comparable to the recent wet years (2018, 2020), and clearly higher than last year. How this will develop depends on the discharge in the coming weeks and the rainfall upstream.