16 August 2017
Based on the information available on 16 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will not be as high as in 2016. With the current available information it is forecasted that the flood will reach a relative good level, a bit higher than the four years before 2016. However, the prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, because we still have to wait for rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin over the next two weeks.
After a modest start in early August, with 347 cm on the first of August, the water level in Mopti reached the level of 435 cm on 16 August, resulting in an increase of 15 cm compared to the previous week. The quick increase in the first decade of August slowed down a bit in the last week. With the current information, it is expected, that the water level in Mopti will show a further increase until the peak is reached in Mopti in the last decade of October, in Akka during the second week of November and in Diré at the third week of November. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 16 August, but also take into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with rainy days during the last week.
The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but with relatively much rain in July, and an upward trend until the first half of August in Upper Niger as well as in Upper Baní. The rainfall in the first 15 days of August was also higher than normal in this time of the year. The weather models forecast for the coming two weeks again a rainfall being above average in Guinea and the southern part of Mali, and a rainfall below average for other parts of Mali. For this reason, it is expected that the flood forecast might even show an increase during the coming fortnight.