6 September 2017
Based on the information available on 6 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will not be as high as in 2016. With the current available information it is forecasted that the flood will reach a relative good level, a bit higher than the four preceding years (2012-2015). However, the prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, because we still have to wait for rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin over the next two weeks.
The water level in Mopti reached the level of 520 cm on 06 September, resulting in an increase of 18 cm compared to the previous week. With the current information, it is expected, that the water level in Mopti will show a further increase in the coming week until the peak is reached in Mopti at the end of the third week of October. Based on OPIDIN, the level of flooding will be at its maximum in Akka during the second decade of November and in Diré during the first week of December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 06 September, but also take into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with relatively rainy days during the last week.
The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started on an average level this year but with relatively much rain in July, and an upward trend until the end of August in Upper Niger as well as in Upper Baní. The rainfall in August was also higher than normal in this time of the year. The weather models still forecast for the coming week a rainfall being above-average. For this reason, it is expected that the flood forecast might show a good increase during the next week.