1 August 2013
Based on the information available on 1 August, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be probably not as high as in 2012, but it is unlikely that the flood will as low as in 2011. Thus, the flood level will deviate not much from the years 2006-2010. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming weeks.
The water level in Mopti remained at a low level until 27 July, but increased between 27 July and 1 August with 71 cm in total. Normally, the water level increases 5-6 cm per day in this time of the year, but in these five days, it was much higher: 10 to 17 cm per day. If it would continue like that, the flood peak would become very high. That is not to be expected, however. The fast increase of the water level in late July was due to the above-average rainfall in the Upper Niger until mid-July. The rainfall in mid and late July in the Upper Niger, however, was quite normal or even a bit below the long-term average. That is why we expect that the water level will rise more slowly the next fortnight and the peak flood not reach a high level.