11 August 2013
Based on the information available on 11 August, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be not as high as in 2010 and 2012 but not as low as in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming weeks.
It becomes more and more likely that 2013 will be a year with a peak flood level being lower than in most of the years since 1994. The water level in Mopti was in July lower than in other years and only slowly increased in the first ten days of August. That is why the prediction of the peak flood in Mopti has been downgraded 13 cm between 1 and 11 August. Fortunately, the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin has been higher than normal for this time of the year. Hence we expect that the next fortnight the water level in the Inner Niger Delta will go up faster than last week which will result in a peak flood level being probably 40-80 cm higher than predicted now from the water level measured in Mopti on 11 August.