11 September 2013
Based on the information available on 11 September, we predict that the flood of 2013 will be as high as in 2010 and 2012 and possibly even a bit higher since the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin in the first ten days of September was 30% above average and in the Basin of the Bani River even 80% above the average (averages calculated for the years 1996-2012).
The rainy season started late this year, as a consequence of which the water level in Mopti remained at a relatively low level in Mopti until 10 August. The water level was so low in early August that we feared for a poor flooding as in 2005 and 2006 (although not as low as in 2011). Fortunately, August was wet in the Upper Niger, and very wet in the Upper Bani. For that reason, the water level in Mopti increased a lot between 11 August and 1 September, causing an upgrade of the flood prediction by 73 cm, from 547 cm (prediction on 10 August) to 622 cm (prediction on 1 September). Between 1 and 11 September, the predicted peak level was upgraded another 14 cm (from 622 to 636 cm on the scale of Mopti).
The water level in Mopti on 11 September amounted to 575 cm. We expect now that the water level in Mopti will increase another 61 cm to reach a peak of 636 cm in the second half of October and (due to the above-average recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani) possibly still a bit higher.