1 August 2014
Based on the information available on 1 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be lower than 2013 and possibly even nearly as low as 2011. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming weeks.
The water level in Mopti remained at a low level until 21 July, but increased 75 cm between 21 and 31 July. We expect a low flood in 2014 since the water level in Mopti on 31 July (280 cm) is relatively low compared to other years, whereas the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the last weeks has been relatively poor; there were in July only two days (13 and 24 July) with a lot of rain in the Upper Niger Basin. Not much rainfall is predicted for the Upper Niger Basin during the next 6 days. If these meteorological predictions proved to be correct, the flood level might become as low as 2012. The rainy season still lasts some weeks, so the current predictions are still unsure.