7 August 2014
Based on the information available on 7 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be lower than in 2012 or 2013 but higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the coming weeks.
The water level in Mopti increased 25 cm between 29 and 31 July, but only 16 cm during the last 7 days. The water level in Mopti reached on 7 August a level of 297 cm, which is 25 cm below the average calculated over the last 20 years for this date. This does not necessarily mean that the flood level will be low, but it becomes more and more unlikely that the peak flood will be high this year. The rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin was below average until late July, which was the reason for a rather pessimistic flood prediction last week. The flood prediction has not changed last week, since also in early August the rainfall in the Upper Basins was below the long-term average. That is why we predict a peak flood for this year being lower than average and thus also lower than the last two years. It is unlikely, however, that the flood level in 2014 will be very low (as in 2011), because the predictions regarding the rainfall in the catchment area of the Niger and Bani for the coming week are not bad. The rainy season still lasts some weeks, so the current predictions are still unsure.