28 August 2014
Based on the information available on 28 August, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be a bit lower than 2012 or 2013 and half a meter higher than 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.
The water level in Mopti increased 43 cm last week to reach on 28 August a level of 444 cm, which is 46 cm below the average calculated over the last 20 years for this date. That is why the peak flood level will not be high this year. The water level in Mopti will still rise 1,5 m and reach its peak half October. The predictions regarding the rainfall in the catchment area of the Upper Niger and the Bani for the coming week are close to what is normal in this time of the year. That is why we assume that the level and the date of the actual peak flood will not deviate much from the current prediction.