6 September 2014
Based on the information available on 6 September, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 50 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 10 – 20 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.
The water level in Mopti increased only 21 cm last 10 days to reach on 6 September a level of 478 cm, which is 53 cm below the average calculated over the last 20 years for this date. That is why the peak flood level will be relatively low this year. The water level in Mopti will still rise 60 - 90 cm and reach its peak already before half October.
The prediction on 1 August was that the water level in Mopti would reach a peak between 550 and 600 cm. We still thought in mid-August that the peak would be in the higher half of this range (between 570 and 600 cm), because of the above-average rainfall in the upper Basin in the preceding week. However, the prediction has since then gradually been downgraded to 550 – 570 cm because the water level in Mopti has shown a remarkably slow increase in late August and early September and the rainfall in the upper Basin has been relatively low in the same period.