11 September 2014
Based on the information available on 11 September, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 60 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 20 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level is now nearly certain.
The water level in Mopti increased only 42 cm between 26 August and 8 September. Since also the rainfall in this period was less than average, the predicted peak of the flood in Mopti gradually declined during these 14 days from 583 cm to 547 cm. Due to the sudden rise of the water level by 20 cm on 9 and 10 September, the predicted flood in Mopti was upgraded 9 cm during the last two days. We expect that the water level will still go up for 4 weeks and reach its peak in Mopti between 9 and 17 October.
At an expected peak flood of 556 cm (± 10 cm) in Mopti, we may also estimate the date at which the bourgou fields in the southwestern part of the Inner Niger Delta will be available for grazing cattle. Using the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the annual date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé, we may predict that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé on about 20 November (between 10 and 30 November).
We predict now that the maximum flood level in Akka will be reached between 4 and 11 November; its peak level will be 412 cm (± 14 cm), which corresponds with an estimated total flooded area of 10.900 km2.
The flood in Diré will be at its peak between 18 and 28 November and reach a maximum level of 473 cm (± 10 cm). At such a low level, we know for sure that this year no river water will reach Lac Faguibine.