13 October 2015
The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 604 cm on 12 October. OPIDIN predicts that the peak in Mopti will be reached within a week, likely even within a couple of days.
The flood level will be at its maximum in Akka between 17 and 21 November and in Diré between 23 November and 1 December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 12 October.
OPIDIN predicts that the cattle can cross the river at Diafarabé between 18 November and 2 December. This prediction is based on the relationship between peak flood level in Mopti and the date when the cows are allowed to enter the Inner Niger Delta at Diafarabé during the last 30 years.
OPIDIN has made predictions of the flood level since 1 August. The predictions for the peak flood level in Mopti has varied this year between 570 cm (on 28 August) and 651 cm (on 10 August). The variation in the daily predictions became smaller later in the season. The predictions since 5 September varied between 591 and 616 cm on the scale of Mopti, and since 19 September still even less, mostly being between 609 and 613 cm.
We thought last week that the peak was already nearly reached because the water level has remained for six days at a same level of 590 cm, but on 7 October the water level in Mopti rose 5 cm and another 9 cm in the following 5 days. Possibly this has much to do with an exceptional heavy rainfall in eastern Guinea-Conakry and western Mali on 6 October.