5 August 2015
Based on the information available on 5 August, we predict that the flood in 2015 will be as high as last year, but probably higher. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming weeks.
The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 301 cm on 5 August. We predict that the water level will still increase about 300 cm until the peak is reached in Mopti in the second half of October. We also expect that the flood level will be at its maximum in Akka in the second half of November and in Diré in the second half of December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 5 August, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with four wet days in the last week of July (22, 24, 26 and 28 July). A lot of rain in the Upper Niger and in the Bani, more than the long-term average, was predicted for the first half of August, but there have been no very wet days last week. Still much rain is expected, however, more than average, for the next week. If this proved to be correct, the flood level will become higher as predicted now, and thus also higher as in 2014. The prediction of the flood will be more precise next week.