20 August 2015
Based on the information available on 19 August, we predict that the flood in 2015 will about as high as the last three years. The prediction of the flood level is not yet certain, however, because we still have to wait how much rain will fall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming week.
The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 399 cm on 19 August. We predict now that the water level in Mopti will increase with 2 m until the peak is reached in Mopti between 14 and 22 October. We also expect that the flood level will be at its maximum in Akka in the first half of November and in Diré in mid-December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 19 August, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with four rainy days during the last week (14, 15, 17, 18 August).
We predict now a flood being about as high as in 2012-2014, which is lower than what we predicted a week ago. The water level in Mopti increased by 9 cm per day, on average, between 6 and 12 August. The water level in Mopti still increased during the last seven days, but only by 4 cm per day. As a consequence, the prediction of the peak flood level was gradually downgraded 10 cm. We had to lower our prediction of the peak flood during the last week still more because the total rainfall in the Upper Niger and Upper Bani was last week not as high as predicted and even 40% lower than the week before.
So far, the total rainfall in the Upper Bani and Upper Niger during this year has been much higher than in 2014, even higher than in 2013, but not yet as high as in 2012. The weather forecast for the coming week is a rainfall being above the long-term average for this time of the year. If true, it is becoming more likely that the flood will higher than in 2014.