26 August 2015
Based on the information available on 26 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be about as high as the last three years. The prediction of the flood level is not yet certain, but it has become very likely that the flood will be higher than 2011 but not as high as in 2007-2011.
The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 438 cm on 26 August. The water level in Mopti will still increase with 1,5 meter until the peak is reached in Mopti between 14 and 22 October. The flood level will be at its maximum in Akka in the first half of November and in Diré in the first half of December. These predictions are based on the water level reached in Mopti on 26 August, but also takes into account the recent rainfall in the Upper Niger and Bani, with two rainy days during the last week (21 and 24 August).
So far, the total rainfall in the Upper Bani and Upper Niger during this year has been much higher than in 2014, even higher than in 2013, but not yet as high as in 2012. The weather forecast for the coming week is a rainfall being above the long-term average for this time of the year. If true, it becomes likely that the flood will become a bit higher than in 2014.