3 August 2016
Based on the information available on 3 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2016 will higher than the last four years. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can still change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming weeks.
The water level was still low in Mopti on 14 July, only 150 cm, but it increased a lot in the second half of July to reach a level of 410 cm on 3 August. Since 1970, the water level in Mopti is usually about 300 cm in early August, so it is this year 100 cm higher than normal. There is since 1970 only one year, 2003, where the water level has also been so high in early August. 2003 was a year with a very high flood level.
The rainy season in the Upper Niger Basin started well this year with relatively much rain in July, in the Upper Niger as well as in the Upper Bani. This explains why the water level in the Bani and Niger increased so fast in the second half of July. To have this year a similar high flood as in 2003, it would be necessary that there is also much rain in the Upper Niger Basin in August. However, the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin last week did not deviate from the long-term average and the weather models forecast for coming week a rainfall being not above average. For this reason, OPIDIN predicts that the water level the next fortnight will increase not as fast as the last fortnight. When these rainfall forecasts appear to be correct, the peak of the flood will be not as high as 2003.