24 August 2016
Based on the information available on 24 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2016 will be extremely high. It will certainly be higher than the last ten years and most likely even become the highest flood in the last 50 years. However, the prediction of the flood level can still change a bit depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming week.
The water level in Mopti was already high early August, but had further increased more than 1.5 meter in the last three weeks to reach the extremely high level of 555 cm on 23 August. The water level reached on 23 August has never been so high on this date in recent years. One has to go back to 1964 to have a year with a similar high water level in Mopti on 23 August. The water level in Mopti is at present already 16 cm higher than the highest flood level in 2011 (when a peak of 539 cm was reached on 16 October). OPIDIN predicts that the peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in dry years.
OPIDIN predicts that the flooding will reach its peak early November in Mopti, late November in Akka and early December in Dire. The last dozens of years, cows were allowed to cross the river at Diafarabé during the course of November. That will not be possible this year, since in November the floodplains will still be covered by water. In 2016, the floodplains will likely become available for grazing after mid-December.