The water level in Mopti has increased to 290 cm on 2 August. That is not as high as last year and in 2016 and 2018 when the water level at this date has reached already a level of 4 m, thus more than 1 meter higher than this year on 2 August. Hence it is not likely that 2021 will be a year with a very high flood as in 2016, 2018 and 2020 (when the peak flood level varied between 657 and 670 cm in Mopti).
The present water level in Mopti is similar to those measured on 2 August in 2010, 2013, 2014 and 2019, being four years with a peak flood level being moderate (varying between 539 and 640 cm in Mopti). The water level in Mopti has not increased very much so far because the rainfall in the Upper Niger during the last four months has also not be very high, although still above the long-term average. It is still early August, so we are only halfway the rainy season and still much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger River during the coming weeks. Unfortunately, the rainfall forecast for the coming week is not much rain in the Upper Niger Basin.
The flood prediction is still unsure and may vary depending on the amount of rainfall the coming weeks. Most likely the flood level will this year not be extremely high, but also not very low.