Based on the information available on 10 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will not be as high as in 2016. With the current available information it is forecasted that the flood will reach a level being comparable with last years (2015, 2013, 2012). However, the prediction of the flood level is still uncertain. Much can still change depending on the rainfall in the upper Niger basin during the coming weeks.
Based on the information available on 3 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2017 will not be as high as in 2016 and the three years before, but above average. This may be due to the modest rainfall (just above average) recorded during the first few months of the rainy season. However, the prediction of the flood level is still uncertain. Much can still change depending on the rainfall in the upper Niger basin during the coming weeks.
This is the last OPIDIN bulletin of 2016. The flood at Mopti has reached its highest level (657 cm) on 19 October and has started to decline, but further downstream the water still goes up. OPIDIN predicts that the flood will reach its peak between 22 and 26 November in Akka and between 3 and 11 December in Diré. The last dozens of years, cows were allowed to cross the river at Diafarabé during the course of November. That will not be possible this year, since in November the floodplains will still be covered by water. In 2016, the floodplains will become available for grazing in the first half of December.
Based on the information available on19 October, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be extremely high this year. It will become one of the highest floodsin the last 50 years, about as high as 1994 and 1999. The peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in extremely dry years.
Based on the information available on 11 October, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be extremely high this year. It will become one of the highest floods in the last 50 years. The peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in extremely dry years.
Based on the information available on 4 October, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be extremely high this year. It will become the highest flood in the last 50 years. The peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in dry years.
Based on the information available on 27 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be extremely high this year. It will become the highest flood in the last 50 years. The peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in dry years.
Based on the information available on 20 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be extremely high this year. It will become the highest flood in the last 50 years. The peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in dry years.
Based on the information available on 13 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be extremely high this year. It will become the highest flood in the last 50 years. The peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in dry years.
Based on the information available on 6 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be extremely high this year. It will most likely become the highest flood in the last 50 years. The peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in dry years.
Based on the information available on 31 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood will be extremely high this year. It will most likely become the highest flood in the last 50 years. The peak of the flood will be 2 m higher, and the area being maximally inundated 2.5 times larger, than in dry years.
Based on the information available on 24 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2016 will be extremely high. It will certainly be higher than the last ten years and most likely even become the highest flood in the last 50 years. However, the prediction of the flood level can still change a bit depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming week.
Based on the information available on 17 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2016 will be extremely high. It will certainly be higher than the last 10 years and most likely become the highest flood in the last 40 years. However, the prediction of the flood level can still change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger basin during the coming weeks.
Based on the information available on 10 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2016 will be extremely high this year. It will certainly be higher than the last ten years and may-be even become the highest flood in the last 40 years. However, the prediction of the flood level can still change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming weeks.
Based on the information available on 3 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2016 will higher than the last four years. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can still change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming weeks.
The water level on the gauge of Mopti reached this year its peak on 27 October and remained for five days on the same level of 622 cm. While the water level in Mopti will decrease again from early November onwards, the flood level will still increase in the central part of Inner Niger Delta for some weeks and in the northern Inner Niger Delta still during the entire month November.
The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 604 cm on 12 October. OPIDIN predicts that the peak in Mopti will be reached within a week, likely even within a couple of days.
The water level on the gauge of Mopti amounted to 590 cm on 1 October and has remained on this level now for five days. Most likely the peak in Mopti has now been reached.
Based on the information available on 1 October, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be as high as 2013 and 2014 and about 20 cm higher as last year. The prediction of the flood level is certain.
Based on the information available on 23 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be as high as 2013 and 2014 and about 20 cm higher as last year. The prediction of the flood level is nearly certain.
Based on the information available on 14 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be as high as last year and thus not as high as in 2012 and 2013. The prediction of the flood level is nearly certain.
Based on the information available on 9 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be about as high as last year and not as high as in 2012 and 2013. The prediction of the flood level is not yet fully certain, but there is no doubt that the flood will be higher than in 2011 and lower than in 2007-2010.
Based on the information available on 2 September, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be about as high as last year and not as high as in 2012 and 2013. The prediction of the flood level is not yet fully certain, but it has become very likely that the flood will be higher than in 2011 and lower than in 2007-2010.
Based on the information available on 26 August, OPIDIN predicts that the flood in 2015 will be about as high as the last three years. The prediction of the flood level is not yet certain, but it has become very likely that the flood will be higher than 2011 but not as high as in 2007-2011.
Based on the information available on 19 August, we predict that the flood in 2015 will about as high as the last three years. The prediction of the flood level is not yet certain, however, because we still have to wait how much rain will fall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming week.
Based on the information available on 10 August, we predict that the flood in 2015 will be higher as the last years. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming fortnight.
Based on the information available on 5 August, we predict that the flood in 2015 will be as high as last year, but probably higher. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming weeks.
Based on the information available on 29 July, we predict that the flood in 2015 will be as high as in 2014, but probably higher. The prediction of the flood level is still uncertain, however. Much can change depending on the rainfall in the Upper Niger Basin during the coming weeks.
This is the last OPIDIN bulletin of 2014. The water level in Mopti has reached its peak (596 cm) on 23 October. The flood predictions of OPIDIN since 1 August have varied not much. In August, we predicted a peak flood level of 550-600 cm. In early September we gradually downgraded the prediction to about 550 cm, but in the following weeks the prediction was gradually upgraded to 580-600 cm and still later to 590-600 cm. Hence, the forecasting during the last three months was usually close to the actually observed peak flood level in Mopti, but was 40-50 cm too low in the first half of September.
Based on the information available on 13 October, we predict that the flood in 2014 will be 35 cm lower than in 2012 or 2013 and 50 cm higher than in 2011. The prediction of the flood level certain.
